Why Optimus can’t fail: Tony Seba’s humanoid robot predictions


Staff member

Tony Seba has recently released his latest predictions for the future regarding humanoid robots that can perform useful work and explains how this will have implications for society from a post-labour perspective. But also emphasises the political aspects of humanoid robots such as their military implications.

Seba believes rapid adoption of this technology is vital to a countries place in the world order, with the potential for the winner to take all.

Why Optimus Must Succeed:

• Humans and the coming humanoid robots are equated with the disruption that happened to the horse and carriage of years past once automobiles entered the market.

• Between 1907 and 1922, horses went from providing 95% of all private travel on American roads to less than 20%.

• This disruption follows a characteristic pattern that can be observed throughout history according to Seba.

•Seba believes we are on the precipice of another disruption curve as seen throughout history with new technologies.

•Humanoid robots are expected to replace humans in 95% of jobs.

•It won’t be possible for humans to compete with humanoid robots endowed with AGI.

•Humanoid robots will give a nation a huge advantage to remain economically self sufficient by increasing its production capabilities.

•Humanoid robots will have implications for a nation’s national security. As a nations army is no longer constrained by its population, but it’s ability to mass produce humanoid robots; nations and non-state actors will be able to raise humanoid robot armies that are larger and more capable than any army seen previously in history.

•Any nation with a large robotic workforce is also a nation capable of producing a large robotic army. The ability to mass produce humanoid robots could have huge implications for a nations sovereignty, territorial integrity and self-determination.

•US has lost the electric vehicle race but cannot afford to lose the humanoid robot race.

•Humanoid robots are likely to be one of the most viable product categories in history by virtue of their ability to create wealth at scale.

•1 billion humanoid robots expected to be produced over the next 20 years.

•Humanoid robots will unlock an explosion of productivity and material super abundance that will make the returns to society on investment into humanoid robots nothing short of staggering.

•Governments have a crucial role to play in fostering humanoid technology as a matter of national interest.

•The future will belong to nations that embrace humanoid robots.

You can read Seba’s blog post on the implications of humanoid robots in relation to disruption at his blog here: